From 8AM SLT today to 11AM, Linden Lab's published population statistics were offline due to periodic database load issues, however. The last reported figure for total signups at 7AM was 2,978,748. When the data feed returned at 11AM, the new figure being reported was 3,018,934, well into 3 million. This beats my flat-growth prediction by about a week and a half.It is to be noted, that this reflects signups, not paying subscribers (approximately 55 thousand on the 24th of January [Thanks, Zee Linden]), and Second Life's retention rate at last report was 10 percent at 90 days. Indeed, many people sign up for a Second Life account and do not log in within 60 days (back of the envelope calculations based on Linden Lab's published statistical data say around 8,500 per day sign up but don't log in).
Obviously the grid is having some real troubles. Linden Lab is fighting to reduce database loads, and make the experience easier and smoother at high loads, but the rate of growth seems to be outstripping their ability to keep up.
Predictions have been that the load-engendered problems would cause collapse of the service as people abandoned the platform through usability difficulties, but so far there have been no signs of that happening. Premium account subscriptions keep showing a steady monthly increase, signup rates continue high (today will be a record day with over 51,000 signups so far. More during our daily roundup - look for it just after midnight, SLT).
Can Linden Lab hold this together? The database load reductions due in Wednesday's update had better be something pretty spectacular, I would think, to sustain these sorts of loads. I can well imagine that load and capacity handling must be taking priority over bug-fixes, even.
