1. You are forgetting one very important factor. Most of the people I know who are still around since '04 or earlier run a business. The performance in SL has been rubbish for any sort of work. Everyday it seems there are times when you can't upload, tp, build, rez from inventory, ect.

I will guess most are lowering the amount of time IW until either LL fixes things (laugh) or something better comes along.

Posted at 3:03AM on Mar 14th 2007 by luth

2. I think Second Life will have a shelf-life until its usability as an application blossoms. Statistically speaking, I imagine anyone who uses anything as a novelty or purely as a form of entertainment is going stop using it after a certain period of time, and that really is the case for Second Life. I'm sure if some broad study was conducted of who is staying in Second Life, it would find that those people stick to Second Life due to usability - businesses, careers, research, etc.

Take the Internet itself. Does the Internet itself have a shelf life? Hell no. People use it for email, to buy stuff, to read newspapers - usability. Do certain websites within the Internet have shelf life? Hell yes. Websites that can't sustain the attention of their readers peter out. Websites that become obsolete or irrelevant also die off. Contrastingly, websites that are innovative with their content creation (Strong Bad, Penny Arcade) are striving.

I therefore think that Second Life needs to diversify and become more "usable." There needs to be something like email for Second Life, an application that pulls SL above being mere entertainment or novelty (granted, it's more than that for some people already, myself included, but it's that way for -most- people). And if SL diversifies, becomes useful in many different ways, ceases to be evaluated as a monolithic, single unit, and perhaps most importantly, leaves the jurisdiction of Linden Labs and disperses over private servers like the Internet itself, it can probably ward off an impending shelf-life.

Posted at 3:12AM on Mar 14th 2007 by Vincent Doctorow

3. I think there's a shelf life in many people's ideas of what SL can be for them. It's like so many authors that manage one good book. I joined late 2005 too, and I am still trying to develop some of my ideas, but then SL really suits what I want to do. I played WoW and Eve fairly extensively and got bored with having such a strict route and limitations on what I could do, so I sought out SL not knowing that's what I was looking for, as did many other older players. Like so many others, I now find myself increasingly frustrated with the technology glitches, and the new audience that SL went out and found, and it's increasingly likely that when my ideas run out so will I. If not before.

Posted at 8:37AM on Mar 14th 2007 by Wolf Hartnell

4. I agree wholey that it has a shelf life, generally a pretty short one at that. You want more rpoof, look at the sky rocketing total residents numbersvsthe more or less stable "Currently active" residents. How many people play once then never return?

Anyway, I fall into the category of "don't use SL much". I just don't have the time really. People talk about SL being the "future of the internet" but who wants to waste time walking around and researching information in a 3D processor hog world when they can open google in a text/image browser and find out the same information in seconds.

Hold ametting in 3D space? Isn't itmuch less awkward and easier to use video teleconfrencing?

SL is essentially a huge gimmick. And it gets old pretty quick.

Posted at 9:48AM on Mar 14th 2007 by Ramen Junkie

5. I don't know that I'd call it a shelf life as much as frustration with the user experience. There are a lot of problems with the infrastructure (not news to the Lindens) that make the software something that mostly tinkerers will like. Those are the people that don't mind the crashes and dealing with problems, they like it to some degree (AKA early adopters). Once those issues get ironed out, and there are actually useful things to do (conferences, voice, real events) then people will come, and stay.

Second Life isn't the 3D internet, as people are saying, it is the precursor. The 3D internet will be built (from scratch) based on the lessons learned from Linden Labs. What we're feeling today is the result of those lessons.

Posted at 12:35PM on Mar 14th 2007 by z3rr0 Zeluco

6. I think SL will only have a shelf life if some other app surpasses it, which is possible, of course.

On the other hand, a person's interest in SL can have a very definite shelf life -- from a day or two up to years, just like our interest in other games, fitness clubs, romantic partners or other things we do with our time.

Posted at 3:36PM on Mar 14th 2007 by Cyn Vandeverre

7. I agree with Cyn, when some other application is better, faster, and stronger than SL, it's due date will be up.

I'm not sure how long that is, I keep waiting for someone to beat Microsoft Windows in their game; other things can be about as flash-in-the-pan as Beanie Babies, Furby, or Gigapets.

Posted at 7:47PM on Mar 14th 2007 by gando

8. Well, shelf life... there could very well be one. but Linden Lab can avert it for aspell by continuing to work toward a stable, fully functional product. which we all know wont happen unless someone breaks the monopoly of what SL is.) but by then it will definately be too late. SL needs to be fully functional and stable now to keep residents when the next best thing comes along. and untilLL has competition... i dont see that happening. its all a matter of how long will you put up with it as an individual. and when someone gets totally fed up, they leave... then come back.. then leave again. the next question needed to be asked of those that have taken a break.... that was actually meant to be permanent... what made you come back?

Posted at 1:04AM on Mar 15th 2007 by AllieKat Stovall