We've started to get a new baseline for transactions and LindeX exchanges since the gambling ban was imposed, ignoring days such as RFL, days with significant downtime etc.Since the ban, and excluding obviously bad days, we've got 5 days, giving us a mean transactions of $1,194,400.00 ± $25,793.41. For the five days before the ban we've got $1,682,600.00 ± $137,794.41. So, daily in-world transactions are down by about $488,000, and despite the short baseline, there is a statistically significant difference (p<0.01).
Looking at LindeX daily trading, since the ban the average is $214,600.00 ± $18,091.43, before the ban it was $230,200.00 ± $20,921.28. Although there is a difference of just under $16,000 per day, there is no significant difference in these values - indeed if you rank the numbers across before and after, the second and third quietest days on LindeX were BEFORE the ban.
(continues)
Of course there is at least one other factor in the mix: Poor old Ginko. We don't know the numbers precisely, but judging from complaints in the Ginko group IM channel a fair proportion of investors used Ginko to store their rent money and earn some interest on it. There's not much reason to assume a particular bias to a given day of the month, most rental groups seem to charge from the day of the deal, so, roughly 3% of the customers keeping their rental money would be withdrawing each day. They then either pay supply Linden to convert to US$, or pay their agent, who probably pays supply Linden too. When others buy their L$, that's another transaction.
Even with this, which would affect LindeX a bit too, you'd expect (possibly all of it in fact), why did the gambling ban have such a big impact on just transactions and not LindeX? Well, we know transactions is generated from each and every transaction in world. But, if you gambled, whatever your game of choice, the chances are there were a LOT of fairly small transactions.
Lets look at just blackjack as an example: You bet (say) L$50 on a game, and win it, or lose it. If you win, you probably get your stake back, occasionally you get a blackjack and get twice your stake. If you lose, it's gone. But, you keep on repeating and repeating. In an hour, if you went in with L$500 and bet L$50 a time, on many games you'd be up or down a bit, but you'd have conducted hundreds if not thousands of transactions. 500 transactions at L$50 a time is L$25,000 an hour, per gambler... or about US$100 per hour per gambler. US$500,000 is suddenly only 5,000 blackjack hours a day - not that much in the grid. Actual casino profits? Not that huge (especially with some of the games out there that you could easily make money on) so the amount to get cashed out: much, much smaller than you'd think.












1. Thanks for writing this up, Eloise. Most people don't understand how the transactions are done in SecondLife - and remember, someone did game the statistics some months ago (it made it to Reuters).
I have a feeling I may be referencing this in the future. :-)
Posted at 2:08AM on Aug 7th 2007 by Nobody Fugazi